Monday, September 27, 2004

Statistical analysis of terrorist attacks in Israel

The MidEastWeb has some statistical analyses on terror attacks in Gaza, Isreal, and the West Bank. A statistician myself, I was curious about how to interpret these. The answer: you can guess at an increase or a decrease, but they're only a small part of the big picture.

Here's a thought: Israel, using methods we probably couldn't get away with, is having problems winning its war on terror, despite great success in thwarting attacks. While "away games are better than home games in war," this makes you wonder about the prospects of peace in Iraq. At the same time, the IDF isn't (correct me if I'm wrong) trying to rebuild the infrastructure in Gaza.