Thursday, September 16, 2004

Two pages you need to see when you think about jobs

The two jobs surveys from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The Establishment Survey interviews businesses, but doesn't get small businesses onto their roster until a two year lag. If the economy is expanding and new businesses are being created, then it will take a while before it shows up on the Establishment survey.

However, the relative sample size of the Household survey is a lot smaller than the establishment survey. Thus it is subject to a higher sampling error.

Selection bias or high sampling error. Take your pick. And remember it when Bush and Kerry start talking about jobs and the economy.